Bitcoin Dynamic DCA Planner

Buy heavy on dips. Go light on rips. Never chase. Target bottom: ~Oct 19, 2026.

Strategy: Instead of buying the same amount each week, this plan adjusts how much you buy based on where the price is relative to its recent trend. When BTC drops, you deploy more capital. When it pumps, you pull back and build a reserve — dry powder that gets deployed on the next dip. You never chase an uptrend and you never sit out a crash.
Historical Drawdown Analysis — Each cycle's bear market gets shallower:
2013-2015
-87.0% $1,163 → $152
2017-2018
-84.1% $19,666 → $3,122
2021-2022
-77.6% $69,000 → $15,479
2025-2026
-46% so far $126,272 → $68,170
Projected drawdown this cycle: ~67% (shallower than prior cycles, consistent with diminishing trend)
Bottoms have historically occurred ~12 months after ATH. ATH was Oct 6, 2025 → projected bottom ~Oct 19, 2026.
Base case bottom = $42,000 (-66.7% from ATH)  |  Mild = $44,195 (-65%)  |  Deep = $31,568 (-75%)

Parameters

Price path targets this date as the bottom. Buying continues past this until full budget is deployed.
Aggressiveness 5
ConservativeAggressive

Allocation Bands

How your buy amount scales relative to your reference price (starting price that adjusts slowly to trend).

Budget Deployment

Deployed
$0 deployed $0 reserve

Price Scenario Simulator

Scenarios based on historical mid-term bear year patterns and projected ~70% drawdown from $126,272 ATH.

Allocation Chart

Orange line = BTC price  |  Dashed = reference price  |  Green bars = weekly buy amount

Week-by-Week Schedule

Monte Carlo Simulation

10,000 simulated price paths using actual weekly returns bootstrapped from the 2018 & 2022 bear markets. Each path randomly samples 33 real weekly moves to build a plausible Mar-Oct price scenario, then runs all three strategies against it.

Dynamic DCA
Buy every week, but adjust the amount based on how far price has deviated from its slow-moving reference. Buy heavy when price crashes below the trend, go light or skip when price pumps above it. Uses the allocation bands and aggressiveness slider configured above. Total budget is always fully deployed.
Flat DCA
Buy the exact same dollar amount every week regardless of price. $200k ÷ 33 weeks = ~$6,061/week. No thinking required, no adjustments. The baseline strategy to beat.
Lump Sum
Deploy the entire $200k on day one at today's price. No averaging, maximum exposure immediately. Best if price only goes up from here, worst if it drops further.